Is our youth a bane or boon?

Is our burgeoning youth a bane or boon?

                           During the early 1980s, China was in a position that India finds itself in 2010. According to some estimates, the population under 25 years in India is 51% and the proportion of population under 35 years of age  is about 66%.

                           It is believed that China’s current economic boom is the direct consequence of the large proportion of youth population. This dominance of youth in the population will last until 2050. The average age of an Indian in 2020 is expected to be 29 years, the average age for China is expected to be 37 years by that time.

                          When I have read all these survey reports, I felt very happy for the development we are going to witness in coming years. Furthermore, we are going to see our nation as a super power at-least in 25 years from now. as we are going to have the world's largest man power and work force. With proper education, health care and jobs we are sure that we would move our economy in the right direction.

But, there are certain other things which we should think.

                         Recently, my mom had a dental complaint. She called up for an appointment to be made on a Saturday. The receptionist said that the dental hospital will be very busy on weekends as all the appointments will be made 15 days in advance. The reason being... all the IT and ITES employees will be free only on Saturday and Sunday. All of these IT employees are of the range 20-35 years of age.

                         If we see in our office, our senior manager is the only one who is of 35+ years of age., rest are of 20-30 years of age. Almost 70% of IT and ITES sector employees come under 25-35 years of age group. Also, the current birth rate is declining gradually. On an average, a pair has only one kid(am referring to the youth statistics).

                         Now, let us go a little bit forward by 30 years of age. We( 25-35 years of age) would become 50+ years by that time. The same situation that we have seen in the dental clinic can be seen in normal hospitals. We would be some 51% of the population who start concentrating on health care. Among the remaining 49% of the population, 24% will be our children and 25% would  be our parents. Among these 24% proportion of younger generation, we can expect a maximum proportion of 10% to be doctors. So, the patients would increase, infrastructure would be good... but the doctors and staff who deal with the infrastructure would be less.

                        Let us see another instance. We are taking many retirement plans here and then. Many firms are also getting benefited by them. Now, after 30 years, when this 51% of population starts retiring and only 25% of population would be planning for their retirement, just imagine the situation that would arise.

                         If we take the existing educational institutions, all the seats will remain unfilled as we would have very less young aspirants by that time. We should start attracting foreign students by then. We will start outsourcing our work to the then developing nations and we would take up only the management roles. We would go to those nations for operations in-spite of having world class hospitals and equipments only because they are cheap. Whatever may be the sector, we would end up in a deep crisis.

                         We will, by then realize that it is exactly the same current situation of developed countries like Australia, European nations etc. If sun rises here in India, it should set in America and vice versa. Let us wait an watch.

I have decided one important thing... I will have two kids in future..
The family planning symbol may be changed in future from the inverted triangle to a Square..

Where in India are we safe?

                         If we are willing to setup an industry or expand a company, the selection of a suitable area is very important. Last year we had a discussion comparing Pune and Hyderabad. There was a question.. In-spite of having many advantages like it being close to the Financial Capital of India - Mumbai, it being a city which has got full support from the state government, it being the 'Detroit' of India (Automobile capital) etc.. why Pune has always been the third choice for IT companies after Bangalore and Hyderabad. Why are many companies concerned about setting up very big branches in Pune, Vizag and many cities of North India?
 
                         The reason is Pune, Vizag, Chennai and various parts of North India are not 100% safe as per the India Meteorological Department.

                         This department has divided India into various zones based on the probability of getting earthquakes. It is believed that, India is driving into The Asian Continent by a distance of 47 milli meter every year. This is the main reason behind such high frequency and intensity of earthquakes India will be susceptible to in the coming years . Almost 54% of the Indian mainland is vulnerable to earthquakes. India is divided India into various seismic zones (Zone 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5). According to this, Zone 5 expects the highest level of seismicity whereas Zone 2 is associated with the lowest level of seismicity.

Zone 5:

             All the North-Eastern States, Himalayas, Northern Gujarat, Rann of Katch, Srinagar come under this Zone. This is highly prone to earthquakes. This zone is called the Highest Damage Risk Zone

Zone 4:

             Delhi, Patna, Bihar, Jammu, Parts of Saurashtra in Gujarat, Mumbai (few parts) fall under this Zone. This zone is called the High Damage Risk Zone.

Zone 3:

             This zone is classified as Moderate Damage Risk Zone. Pune and surrounding areas, Vizag, Western Ghats, Eastern Ghats, Bhopal, Lucknow, Andaman and Nicbar Islands, etc come under this zone.

Zone 2:

            This zone is classified as the Low Damage Risk Zone. Parts of Orissa, Tamil Nadu, many parts of central India come under this category.

Zone 1:

           This zone has very less risk.. in fact negligible risk. Hyderabad, Bangalore, Raipur, Jaipur come under this zone. However, the new classification has removed the concept of Zone 1 since these are not earthquake prone regions.

                         This zoning information is very important for any organization and individual since it enables a better form of disaster preparedness. However, we cannot predict the political issues that may arise and get prepared to face the disasters that will be caused by them even if we choose the best place.

How is TRP rating evaluated ?

                      Ramanand Sagar's Ramayan was listed in the Limca Book of Records as the world's "most viewed mythological serial" based on the TRP ratings. Recently, during the closing ceremony of XIX Commonwealth Games, it is estimated that 82% of the Indian population viewed Doordarshan Channel.
                      We hear this word 'TRP Rating' quite often. Based on the TRP rating, advertisers sponsor the programs.

Now, what is this TRP rating and how is it calculated?

                      TRP is 'Television Rating Point'. It is a scale to calculate the popularity of a channel or the program. Earlier, DART used to be the only agency which calculated this rating point for Doordarshan programs. Now, an agency is set up which works with various organizations like Nielsen in evaluating the TRP. This agency is known as INTAM which means Indian Television Audience Measurement.

How this evaluation is the done?

                         DART used manual surveying in 33 major cities to evaluate the TRP rating. However, this method is prone to mistakes and subjectivity. Various factors like age of the viewer, gender etc are supposed to be taken into consideration while evaluating them. So, this process is almost obsolete these days.

Now, two new techniques are introduced in the last ten years.

•     People Meters
•     Picture-match technique

                        INTAM uses these two methodologies for calculating TRP. It has chosen many sample homes across the country both in rural and urban parts and has installed electronic gadgets which monitor the TV channels.

• People Meters:

                        'People meter' reads the frequencies of the channels, which are decoded into the name of the channels. This data is consolidated and the agency prepares a report on this basis. But there is a small problem here... our cable operators change the frequencies many times before sending signals to our homes. Also, the frequency of the channel we see is not same all over the nation. Moreover, with the advent of direct to home (DTH) , Dish TV, Direct Plus etc., people have started using their own satellite decoders. So, frequency recognition is a tough task and hence, this process has become complex.

• Picture-match technique:

                         In picture-match technique, instead of recording the frequency, people meter continuously records the portion of the picture or the logo of the channel that is being watched on that particular television set at that particular time. Data collected from the sample homes is later used to evaluate the channel name and the popular program nation wide.

                         Many claim that all these TRP ratings are not authentic but we should understand that there is a lot of analysis associated in this evaluation. However, these agencies are not appointed by the Government of India.. so we should not except them to be 100% reliable.