Is our burgeoning youth a bane or boon?
During the early 1980s, China was in a position that India finds itself in 2010. According to some estimates, the population under 25 years in India is 51% and the proportion of population under 35 years of age is about 66%.
It is believed that China’s current economic boom is the direct consequence of the large proportion of youth population. This dominance of youth in the population will last until 2050. The average age of an Indian in 2020 is expected to be 29 years, the average age for China is expected to be 37 years by that time.
When I have read all these survey reports, I felt very happy for the development we are going to witness in coming years. Furthermore, we are going to see our nation as a super power at-least in 25 years from now. as we are going to have the world's largest man power and work force. With proper education, health care and jobs we are sure that we would move our economy in the right direction.
But, there are certain other things which we should think.
Recently, my mom had a dental complaint. She called up for an appointment to be made on a Saturday. The receptionist said that the dental hospital will be very busy on weekends as all the appointments will be made 15 days in advance. The reason being... all the IT and ITES employees will be free only on Saturday and Sunday. All of these IT employees are of the range 20-35 years of age.
If we see in our office, our senior manager is the only one who is of 35+ years of age., rest are of 20-30 years of age. Almost 70% of IT and ITES sector employees come under 25-35 years of age group. Also, the current birth rate is declining gradually. On an average, a pair has only one kid(am referring to the youth statistics).
Now, let us go a little bit forward by 30 years of age. We( 25-35 years of age) would become 50+ years by that time. The same situation that we have seen in the dental clinic can be seen in normal hospitals. We would be some 51% of the population who start concentrating on health care. Among the remaining 49% of the population, 24% will be our children and 25% would be our parents. Among these 24% proportion of younger generation, we can expect a maximum proportion of 10% to be doctors. So, the patients would increase, infrastructure would be good... but the doctors and staff who deal with the infrastructure would be less.
Let us see another instance. We are taking many retirement plans here and then. Many firms are also getting benefited by them. Now, after 30 years, when this 51% of population starts retiring and only 25% of population would be planning for their retirement, just imagine the situation that would arise.
If we take the existing educational institutions, all the seats will remain unfilled as we would have very less young aspirants by that time. We should start attracting foreign students by then. We will start outsourcing our work to the then developing nations and we would take up only the management roles. We would go to those nations for operations in-spite of having world class hospitals and equipments only because they are cheap. Whatever may be the sector, we would end up in a deep crisis.
We will, by then realize that it is exactly the same current situation of developed countries like Australia, European nations etc. If sun rises here in India, it should set in America and vice versa. Let us wait an watch.
I have decided one important thing... I will have two kids in future..
The family planning symbol may be changed in future from the inverted triangle to a Square..

Nice blog badri!!
ReplyDeleteWhere to do u get time to post such things which require research, statistical facts and ofcourse insight!! Good job.
But statistically going..around 30% of indian population are in the age group of 0-14. SO after 20 yrs atleast 35-40% of indians are below 35 yrs of age.(and that too if u have only 1 kid ;-) )..so if inverted triangle turns square,the figure goes upto 60%.Do u think ur analysis still holds true??
Hello Santosh bhai,
ReplyDeleteThanks for your time... I analyzed it in this way...
As per the 'square' theory.. let us take this small example.. on an average, our grand father had 5 sons and each of his son has two kids. So, in his old-age, he had five attendants. Whereas, our father's generation would have two attendants. We see that, we have 'very less 50+ population when compared to <50 population' as of now.
But, in the next 30 days... this scenario will get reversed if the inverted triangle is followed.. proportion would become 'more 50+ population and less <50 population'...
So, I am expecting 'the lack of youth crisis' at that point.
I hope this analysis is going in a correct direction :)
Thanks a lot again Santosh as your comment made me to re-think again :)
Regards,
Badri
No problem sir.. As china is 20-25 years ahead of us , we can implement the same solutions in our country which are tried and tested in China for the problems with these youth/old population.
ReplyDeleteCool :-)
Hello Amaresh,
ReplyDeleteYes.. U r right.. we will follow them :)
Ha ha Amaeresh....Cool :-)
ReplyDeleteGood One Badri
:-)
ReplyDeleteThanks Maruthi ..